New York Islanders

Islanders Preview: Optimism Overides Fear Of The Inevitable

Hey everyone. Sorry I disappeared for six weeks, but there wasn’t a hell of a lot to report and my job took over my life. I’m back for good now that the season starts Friday night at New Jersey.

OK, like you I’ve read the prognostications for the upcoming season. THN picked the Islanders 15th out of 15 in the East. Most every major media outlet has the Isles finishing last in the Atlantic.

To quote the immortal Jim Mora: “Playoffs? Playoffs??? Are you kidding me? PLAYOFFS?????”

I’ve spent the last few years dedicating my Islander time to fear and dread, mostly because this team has had some talent and I feared the embarrassment of not making the playoffs. Those days, though, are over.

I’m all optimism from here on out because, to be honest, the organization has finally decided to do what the fans had hoped for in lieu of not spending money. The massive rebuilding process is in full swing.

Names like Okposo, Tambellini, Bergenheim, Bailey, Comeau, Hillen and Nielsen are going to dominate this blog going forward because, again, this is what I asked for. These guys — or most of them — will be with the big club all season, making this a house money season. The team can’t get worse because I define not making the playoffs with 80 points as just as bad as finishing out of the fun with 50 points.

Having said all that, here’s my list of pros and cons for the current squad and what to look for going forward:

PROS:

1. Scott Gordon. If you’re going to truly go ahead with a rebuilding project that’s going to take years, you might as well have the best coach in the AHL spearheading the effort. Throughout the preseason Gordon has not wavered in his approach. The Islanders will play an intense forechecking system that will focus on creating turnovers and odd-man rushes, almost certainly because they don’t have the personnel to play otherwise. They are not going to beat teams 5-on-5 in the offensive end, no matter how hard they work in the corners. This is so because they don’t have the wherewithall to finish on anywhere near a consistent basis.

To his credit, Gordon has stayed consistent with his plan. There have been injuries as a result of the complete overhaul of how the Isles do things. Andy Sutton and Chris Campoli could be gone for months with unspecified injuries, though word on the street says Campoli has a shoulder problem. But injuries were to be expected. You change the entire way things are done in practice and, inevitably, there will be physical casualties.

While the jury is still out on how productive Gordon’s new system will be, there will be no questioning this team’s work ethic. The defense and goaltending is good enough to keep the team in every game, but how the young players develop on the offensive end will almost certainly tell the final tale as to where this team finishes in the conference.

2. Leadership. Bill Guerin, Doug Weight, Brendan Witt, Richard Park, DP and Mike Sillinger are just a few of the guys who may be long in the tooth in years, but are almost certainly not in the mood to be an embarrassment. There will not be dysfunction in the locker room. The younger players have great role models to emulate here. The team’s desire and will to win will not be an issue in 2008-09.

3. Youth. It goes without saying, the development of the core group of youngsters I mentioned earlier will define not only this season, but seasons to come. If Okposo, Comeau and Tambellini turn into the players we think they can become the Islanders will be competitve and will prevent the front office from screwing things up with ill-advised signings and trades. If you take nothing else from this season, you have to pray to God that these three become bonafide NHL players. Keep an eye on Nielsen. He’s played exceptionally well in the preseason when paired with Trent Hunter. Jack Hillen will likely get some ice time early with Sutton and Campoli on the mend. How long he sticks around will depend. Bergenheim strikes me as a guy who would score 30 goals with the Red Wings, but on an inept offensive squad like the Isles has to work twice as hard every game. He has the skills, but like Tambellini, we’ll soon find out if he’s a true “tweener” (as in AHL god vs. NHL scratch artist) or someone ready to take that next step.

CONS:

1. Wait for it … Ah yes. Goal scoring. If Gordon’s forechecking system works the way it’s supposed to work and the veterans do what they’ve done in past years, the Islanders should be able to manage 2-3 goals a night. That will leave DiPietro and a very good defense corps to do the rest. That’s a huge “if” I know, but not out of the realm of possibility. Mike Comrie needs to be Mike Comrie. Him finishing with 50-60 points and Guerin scoring 25-30 goals or more is also not a ridiculous notion. But the overall offensive success of this squad will be determined by the development of the kids. Case closed.

2. Health. DP has been a bit of a tin man over the last two years. I, for one, do not question his heart. What I do question is this suicidal idea he has in his head that he can play 70-plus games. Forget it. Joey McDonald will get his fair share of PT. We’ll all just have to deal with it.

Defensively, the Isles have the depth to withstand some bumps and bruises, but cannot afford to have Radek Martinek or Witt miss significant time. The same can be said on the offensive end. Comrie must stay healthy, as do Sillinger, Hunter and Park, mostly because they serve many masters, including the power play and penalty killing.

3. Power play. Until proven otherwise, or until Mark Streit shows that he can be the quarterback this team has lacked forever, the man-up unit will be scrutinized to no end. One thing is certain, the Isles should get a lot more PP opportunities than they did last year because the up-tempo forechecking system should force the opposition into taking a lot of penalties. The focus will be on Streit, Guerin, Comrie and Okposo. If things go as I think they will the Islanders will have to be an efficient special teams team to have a shot every night because we know the offense at even strength will be a major work in progress.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Okposo, Jon Sim, Comeau, Nielsen, Bailey, Bergenheim, Tambellini, Streit

PROGNOSIS:

I am counting on a slow start. The new system is just too complex to get down quickly. The veterans will be counted on to keep things in order for the first quarter to third of the season. But once everyone is comfortable, this team won’t be as bad as everyone thinks. Of course, there are about a million things that must break right for this team to avoid bottom-feeder status, but as noted earlier defensively and in net, the Islanders are right there with anyone in their division. The hope is they’ll win their fare share of 2-1 and 3-2 games, because the odds of them scoring more than that on a nightly basis is a real stretch.

Ultimately, the Islanders circa 2008-09 will hover around 10th in the East. If they finish any higher than that, Gordon should be coach of the year. Playoffs? Doubtful, but they’ll be an interesting bunch to watch nightly. Try to take pleasure in watching the youngsters because, as I said earlier, they will be what this team will be.

Right now, that’s not saying much. But it could be a lot worse.